Club World Cup Odds Analysis: Benfica vs Bayern Munich

Soccer Genius
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Club World Cup Odds Analysis: Benfica vs Bayern Munich
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At 27 June 2025, 20:00 (UK Time), the Club World Cup continues with a thrilling clash as Portuguese giants Benfica face off against Bundesliga powerhouse Bayern Munich.

Benfica displayed resilience in their Club World Cup opener against South American heavyweight Boca Juniors. Despite trailing twice during the match, goals from Ángel Di María (penalty) and Nicolás Otamendi (a crucial header) helped them fight back to secure a hard-earned 2-2 draw. While the match showcased Benfica's fighting spirit, it also highlighted certain vulnerabilities in their defensive setup. In their second group match, however, Benfica unleashed their attacking potential with a commanding 6-0 victory over Auckland City. Di María and Rafa Barreiro both netted braces, while Pavlidis contributed a goal and an assist, and Renato Sanches also got on the scoresheet—demonstrating the team’s attacking versatility.

However, Benfica faces a key setback going into this match: defender Álvaro Fernández will miss the game due to yellow card accumulation, which poses a significant blow to their already vulnerable back line. Over their last five matches, Benfica has scored 11 goals—an impressive offensive output—but has conceded 5, reflecting defensive frailty that could be exploited by stronger opponents.

Bayern Munich, meanwhile, have been in outstanding form throughout this Club World Cup campaign. They’ve won both of their group matches with authority, showcasing their dominance. In the opener, Bayern crushed Auckland City 10-0 in a relentless offensive display, with goals coming from across the squad. In the second match, they overcame a tough Boca Juniors side 2-1, led by Harry Kane’s goal and assist, to secure qualification to the knockout stage with a game to spare.

Under manager Vincent Kompany, Bayern’s high-pressing 4-2-3-1 system has been functioning with great efficiency. The team boasts excellent ball control and fluid attacking combinations, having netted 21 goals in their last five matches. Defensively, they’ve conceded just 4 times during the same span, demonstrating both balance and resilience. Notably, Joshua Kimmich has emerged as a key orchestrator in midfield, recording over 100 passes in the attacking third so far in the tournament—more than any other player.

All 29 squad members participated in Bayern's latest training session, suggesting the possibility of tactical rotation or resting of key players, though their depth remains formidable.

Looking at the historical head-to-head record, Benfica and Bayern have met 8 times previously, with Benfica recording 2 draws and 6 losses—yet to achieve a single win against the German side. Despite coming off a massive victory, Benfica are clearly outmatched in both experience and squad quality. Given the disparity in strength and recent form, Bayern Munich are favored to take all three points.

Prediction: Bayern Munich to Win
Match Time: 27 June 2025, 20:00 (UK Time)

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