Copa del Rey Quarterfinal
February 4, 2026
Kick-off: Evening, local time in Spain (CET)
Venue: Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia vs Athletic – Match Analysis and Betting Preview
The Copa del Rey quarterfinals deliver a classic Spanish showdown as Valencia host Athletic Bilbao. With both teams underperforming in La Liga, the cup represents a crucial opportunity to restore confidence and give their seasons a positive direction.
Team Form and Current Context
Valencia have been under the guidance of Carlos Corberán for just over a year. His arrival initially stabilized a struggling squad, lifting them from the bottom of the table to a respectable 12th-place finish last season with 46 points. However, that momentum has not carried forward. Valencia have slipped back into relegation trouble this campaign, underlining persistent structural issues.
Despite this, recent signs are encouraging. A hard-fought January win over Getafe offered breathing room, although a 1–2 defeat to Betis quickly followed. Performances at Mestalla remain competitive, and urgency has sharpened their attacking intent.
Athletic Bilbao’s trajectory has been the opposite. After lifting the Copa del Rey in 2024 and reaching the Europa League semi-finals while finishing fourth in La Liga, expectations were high. Instead, they now find themselves drifting in mid-table. A recent draw against Real Sociedad was viewed as a positive outcome, highlighting their reduced standards.
European competition has been unforgiving. A heavy 0–5 loss to Barcelona in the Super Cup and elimination from the Champions League group stage after a home defeat to Sporting exposed limitations in depth and consistency.
Cup Progress So Far
Valencia’s cup run has been steady rather than spectacular. They opened with a commanding 5–1 away win over Maracena, then registered controlled victories over Cartagena, Sporting Gijón, and Burgos, scoring exactly twice in each match. While not explosive, this shows reliability.
Athletic’s journey required more grit. Narrow wins against Ourense and Cultural Leonesa at home contrasted with their struggles away, where margins remained thin despite progression. Their cup performances reflect effort and experience but also underline attacking inefficiency.
Valencia vs Athletic: Key Stats and Trends
Valencia have won three of their last four matches
Valencia average 1.05 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per match
59% of Valencia matches see both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.64 goals
Athletic have lost five of their last eight matches
Athletic average 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per match
45% of Athletic matches feature both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.36 goals
Head-to-Head Record
Recent meetings are perfectly balanced. Each side has won twice in the last four encounters, reinforcing the perception of a finely matched contest where home advantage may prove decisive.
Probable Starting Lineups
Valencia (probable):
Dimitrievski – Gayà, Copete, Santamaría, Foulquier – Danjuma, Pepelu, Ugrinić, Rioja – Beltrán, Duro
Athletic (probable):
Unai Simón – Berchiche, Paredes, Vivian, Areso – Jauregizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, N. Williams, Unai Gómez, Berenguer – Guruzeta
Professional Market Movement and Odds Analysis
Opening odds slightly favored Athletic due to their reputation and recent cup pedigree. However, early market action shifted toward Valencia, especially in the draw-no-bet and Asian handicap 0 lines. Valencia’s price shortened from around 1.95 to near 1.80, signaling growing professional confidence in the hosts.
The goal line has remained steady at 2.25, indicating expectations of a competitive but not overly open match. Traders appear reluctant to push totals higher given both sides’ scoring struggles.
Trading Direction and Market Psychology
The betting market reflects a clear psychological divide. Casual bettors are tempted by Athletic’s historical success and name recognition, while sharper money is backing situational factors: Valencia’s urgency, home atmosphere at Mestalla, and Athletic’s recent fatigue and European disappointment.
Professionals are avoiding aggressive handicaps and instead targeting safer positions like draw-no-bet, aligning with expectations of a tight contest decided by small margins rather than dominance.
Free Prediction for Valencia vs Athletic
This quarterfinal looks evenly matched on paper, but current form and market movement point toward Valencia holding a slight edge at home.
Recommended bet:
Valencia – Asian Handicap 0 (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.80
Expected scoreline:
Valencia 1–0 or 2–1 Athletic
