Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Arminia Bielefeld Betting Preview – 2. Bundesliga, Round 18
Match Information
Competition: 2. Bundesliga
Round: 18
Date: January 16, 2026
Kick-off: Evening, local time (CET)
Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf
Our Prediction for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Arminia
Fortuna Düsseldorf entered the season with ambitions of returning to the Bundesliga after narrowly missing out via the promotion playoffs last year. A sixth-place finish with 53 points suggested stability and depth, but the current campaign has been anything but smooth. The Düsseldorf side has slipped into the relegation zone, struggling for consistency and confidence.
Before the winter break, however, Fortuna managed a vital win against Greuther Fürth, ending a damaging losing streak. That victory could be psychologically significant, especially with relegation pressure mounting and a direct rival visiting their home ground.
Arminia Bielefeld’s story has been dramatic in recent years. After an impressive cup run to the final and a successful promotion from the third tier, expectations were cautiously optimistic. Reality has been harsher. The newcomers have found life in the 2. Bundesliga demanding, hovering just above the relegation line.
They ended 2025 in difficult fashion. Three consecutive defeats were followed by draws against Kaiserslautern and Hertha Berlin. The draw in Berlin was particularly telling, as Arminia needed a stoppage-time equalizer while playing with a numerical advantage – a result that highlighted both resilience and inefficiency.
Team Performance Metrics
Under coach Anfang, Fortuna Düsseldorf average just 0.88 goals scored per match while conceding 1.59. Their offensive struggles are evident, and games often hinge on defensive discipline rather than attacking flair.
Arminia Bielefeld, despite being newcomers, have been more productive in front of goal with 1.59 goals per game, but their defensive record remains vulnerable at 1.41 goals conceded per match. This imbalance has resulted in open games but few victories.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Arminia: Key Stats and Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf have lost four of their last six league matches
53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf’s matches end with both teams scoring
Average total goals in Fortuna matches: 2.47
Arminia are winless in their last five league games
59% of Arminia’s matches see goals from both sides
Average total goals in Arminia matches: 3.0
Probable Starting Lineups
Fortuna Düsseldorf (probable lineup):
Kastenmeier – Dalan, Edjuli, Oberdorf, Ijoa – Suso, El-Azzouzi, Muslija, Appelkamp – Itten, Rasmussen
Arminia Bielefeld (probable lineup):
Kersken – Felix, Schneider, Grosser – Handwerker, Russo, Werl, Korboz, Hagmann – Sarenren Bazee, Momulu
Head-to-Head Overview
Fortuna Düsseldorf had gone five consecutive matches unbeaten against Arminia before suffering a heavy 1–5 defeat in Bielefeld earlier this season. That result still lingers in the market’s memory but may be misleading given the current form and context.
Professional Market Analysis and Odds Movement
Early Asian handicap markets opened with Fortuna Düsseldorf as a narrow home favorite, reflecting historical strength and home advantage. However, there has been no aggressive line movement toward Düsseldorf, suggesting limited confidence from professional bettors.
The total goals line opened at 3.0, but sharp money has leaned toward the under. This is driven by several factors: the importance of the match, Fortuna’s low scoring rate, and both teams’ reluctance to lose rather than their desire to win.
Bookmakers appear comfortable holding the line at under 3.0 rather than pushing it lower, indicating balanced action from recreational bettors expecting goals and professionals anticipating a tense, cautious contest.
Trading Direction and Market Psychology
From a trading perspective, this is a classic relegation six-pointer. In such fixtures, market psychology often overestimates attacking intent. In reality, teams prioritize structure, minimize errors, and avoid early risks.
Punters focusing on recent high-scoring Arminia games may be tempted by overs, but the situational context strongly favors a slower tempo. Fortuna, in particular, are unlikely to open up unless forced to chase the game.
Live trading strategies may also favor early unders, with potential hedging opportunities if an early goal arrives against the run of play.
Free Prediction for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Arminia
Both teams desperately need points, but fear of defeat is likely to outweigh ambition. Expect a tight midfield battle, limited chances, and a match decided by small margins rather than attacking dominance.
Recommended bet: Total under 3.0 goals
Estimated odds: 1.60
