The preliminary qualification round match of the Africa Cup of Nations between São Tomé and Príncipe and Ethiopia will be played on March 25, 2026, adjusted to local time.
Team News and Expert Analysis
São Tomé and Príncipe
São Tomé and Príncipe head into this fixture with mixed momentum. They ended their World Cup qualifying campaign on a positive note, securing a 1-0 home victory over Malawi. However, that result came after a difficult run of seven consecutive defeats, highlighting ongoing inconsistency. Notably, their previous win before that stretch dated back to spring 2022, underlining the challenges they have faced in maintaining competitive form.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia are widely regarded as the stronger side in this matchup. They returned to the Africa Cup of Nations in 2021, where they managed one draw and suffered two defeats. In their most recent qualification campaign, they recorded victories against Djibouti and Guinea-Bissau, finishing with nine points from ten matches. Although they placed near the bottom of their group, their overall level remains higher than their upcoming opponents.
From a statistical standpoint, São Tomé and Príncipe average just 0.6 goals scored per match while conceding 2.1, indicating both attacking and defensive struggles. Ethiopia show better offensive output with 1.1 goals per game, though they also concede an average of 2 goals, suggesting some defensive vulnerabilities.
Head-to-Head Overview
The two teams last met in the autumn of 2015, with each side winning their respective home match. This suggests a balanced historical record, though much has changed since then.
Key Statistics and Trends
São Tomé and Príncipe
They have lost 7 of their last 8 matches
40% of their matches feature goals from both teams
Average total goals per match: 2.7
Ethiopia
They have won 3 of their last 6 matches
40% of their matches see both teams scoring
Average total goals per match: 3.1
Probable Starting Lineups
São Tomé and Príncipe (1-4-5-1)
Bonfim
Fernandes, Vava, d'Almeida, Fernandes
Bragança, Neves, Vilhete, Cardoso, Lumungu
Cravid
Ethiopia (1-4-5-1)
Getahun
Yusuf, Reshid, Gang, Kareto
Waza, Sherefa, Tekle, Dana, Beshah
Ayten
Match Analysis and Prediction
Ethiopia enter this match with a clear edge in quality and experience. While both teams have defensive issues, Ethiopia’s superior attacking output and more consistent performances make them favorites. São Tomé and Príncipe may benefit from home support, but their recent record suggests they will struggle to contain the visitors.
Given the gap in overall strength, Ethiopia are expected to overcome the home advantage and take control of the match.
Predicted Score
São Tomé and Príncipe 0-2 Ethiopia
