Will the Turks repeat their thrashing from a month ago?
In October, Arda Güler and his squad dismantled the Bulgarian national team in Sofia. The upcoming match will take place at the Timsah Arena in Bursa, leaving the Bulgarians with slim chances for a positive result. Turkey has a clear competitive motivation—victory secures second place in the group and a spot in the playoffs.
Head-to-Head
The match on October 11 marked the first official meeting between Turkey and Bulgaria in the 21st century. The first half ended in a draw, but Bulgaria conceded five unanswered goals in the second half, resulting in a 6-1 thrashing. Young stars Arda Güler (1 goal, 2 assists) and Kenan Yıldız (2 goals) were particularly impressive.
Turkey are where they were expected in the standings. While it is theoretically possible to challenge for the top spot, the 6-0 loss to Spain in September created a significant goal difference gap, which is a key tiebreaker.
Since then, Vincenzo Montella's squad has been dominant. Besides Bulgaria, Georgia also suffered a heavy defeat, losing 4-1, marking their first loss by more than two goals in over a year. Veteran players like Hakan Çalhanoğlu have also stepped up, providing two assists in consecutive matches.
Bulgaria were expected to struggle in the group, and their current position reflects that. With a goal difference of 1-15, the situation is grim. Since the dismissal of Ilian Iliev in September, the team has conceded ten goals in just two matches. Against Spain, they were lucky to lose only 0-4, with possession at 22% and expected goals at 0.23 xG compared to Spain’s 3.78 xG.
Latest news
Turkey
A recent betting scandal in Turkey has led to player suspensions. Coach Vincenzo Montella told his squad:
“Block out the noise, focus solely on the pitch. We have two crucial matches ahead. In the match against Bulgaria on Saturday, I don’t want any mistakes.”
Turkey will be without Yunus Akgün (injury) and Eren Elmali (involved in the scandal).
Bulgaria
Bulgaria face more injuries, with four players sidelined: Anton Nedyalkov, Emil Tsenov, Petko Hristov, and Stanislav Ivanov. Except for Ivanov, the others could have been potential starters.
Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Nick Walsh (Scotland), who averages 5.6 yellow cards over his last ten matches. Bulgaria average 2, Turkey 1.7 yellow cards per match. Considering past head-to-head encounters and the referee’s strictness, over 2.5 yellow cards is likely.
Goal Prediction
Turkey have scored before halftime in 6 of their last 7 home World Cup qualifiers. Bulgaria have conceded in 6 of their last 7 qualifying matches. It is hard to imagine the visitors holding off the initial Turkish onslaught.
Corner Prediction
Bulgaria earned five corners in their last home match against Turkey, but their overall average is only 1.8 corners per game. In six consecutive away qualifiers, Bulgaria has taken fewer than 2.5 corners. With little motivation, they are unlikely to break this trend.
Editorial Prediction
Turkey not only outclass Bulgaria but also have home advantage and the need for a win to secure a top-2 finish. Bulgaria’s weak defense and minimal attacking threat make a turnaround improbable.
We anticipate a commanding 4-0 victory for Turkey, with a strong recommendation to bet on Turkey’s individual total over 2.5 goals.
