Liverpool returned to the summit of English football last season, securing their 20th Premier League crown with 84 points. The Reds sealed the title with four games to spare, drawing level with Manchester United at the top of the all-time English league winners’ chart after a 14-year wait. This summer, Liverpool made headlines with an unprecedented transfer spree, splashing over €480 million on marquee signings such as Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, and Hugo Ekitiké—setting a global record for the highest single-window expenditure.
The investment has paid immediate dividends. Liverpool have started the new season with four straight wins, sitting top of the Premier League table with 12 points. They opened with a 4–2 victory over Bournemouth, extending their unbeaten streak in opening-day fixtures to 13 consecutive seasons—the longest such run in Premier League history. Their recent 2–1 win over Burnley also stretched their record streak of scoring in 38 consecutive league matches, underlining their attacking consistency. Importantly, Liverpool are the only side in England to maintain a 100% record after four rounds.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, endured a more modest campaign last year. They finished third in La Liga with 76 points, securing a Champions League spot but trailing the title challengers. Their home form was strong, but away from the capital they earned just 30 points, suffering more defeats on their travels. Atletico’s summer included an early exit from the Club World Cup group stage, and their current domestic form has been mixed. With one win, two draws, and one loss from their first four matches, they sit 11th in La Liga with five points. After a disappointing 1–2 defeat to Espanyol on opening day, they have since failed to win either of their two away games (1–1 vs Alavés, and a loss to Espanyol), though they did claim a morale-boosting 2–0 home victory over Villarreal last weekend.
Bookmakers opened the line with Liverpool favored at -0.75 goals, later adjusting to -1.0, signaling strong confidence in the home side. Squad valuations also underline the difference: Liverpool’s roster stands at €1.12 billion compared to Atletico’s €627 million. Moreover, the Reds have history firmly on their side, having beaten Atletico in all three of their most recent Champions League encounters.
While Liverpool’s form and firepower suggest they are poised for another victory, the handicap movement indicates some caution. Atletico may not have the resources to upset the odds, but they are organized enough to keep the scoreline respectable.
Prediction: Handicap Draw or Atletico to Cover (+1)
