Newcastle United have had an inconsistent season. After 19 league matches, they have recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, collecting 26 points and sitting 13th in the Premier League. This represents a sharp contrast to last season, when they were competing for European qualification.
Offensively, Newcastle rely heavily on the performances of Alexander Isak and Gordon, but their attacking efficiency has declined recently. In their last six matches, they have scored only 9 goals, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Defensively, the issues are even more pronounced. Newcastle have conceded 24 goals, averaging 1.26 goals per game, placing them among the ten worst defensive records in the league.
Recent form has been underwhelming, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last six matches, representing a 33% win rate.
Injuries have further weakened the squad. Key defenders including Russell, Craft, and Pope are unavailable, forcing continuous defensive reshuffles and adding pressure to the back line.
Additionally, Newcastle face a congested fixture schedule, balancing both Champions League and Premier League matches, which raises concerns about squad rotation and player fitness.
Crystal Palace: Mid-Table Form on the Rise
Crystal Palace currently sit 10th in the Premier League with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, accumulating 27 points. While ranked mid-table, the team’s recent form shows clear improvement.
In attack, Crystal Palace rely on the partnership of Mateta and Eze. Over their last six matches, they have scored 10 goals, averaging 1.67 goals per game, outperforming Newcastle in attacking efficiency.
Defensively, Palace have conceded 21 goals this season, but tactical adjustments have improved resilience. In their last six matches, they have allowed 12 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, showing noticeable improvement compared to earlier in the season.
Away form has been particularly strong. In their last six away matches, Palace have achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, a 50% win rate, with strong performances even against top teams. For instance, they narrowly lost 1–2 at Manchester City in December 2025, demonstrating their ability to handle pressure.
In terms of injuries, Crystal Palace have also been affected by absences such as Doucoure and Nkunku, but overall squad depth is superior to Newcastle’s. The core team remains intact, and tactical execution is strong.
Match Analysis and Verdict
Newcastle may have home advantage, but their current situation is far from ideal. Attacking and defensive imbalances, a heavy injury list, low form, and the distraction of Champions League commitments significantly reduce their overall competitiveness.
Crystal Palace, on the other hand, arrive in better form, with a complete squad, strong tactical discipline, and solid away performances, giving them the potential to upset Newcastle.
Historically, Newcastle hold only a slight advantage, with 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 meetings against Palace. In the last three encounters, Newcastle have managed 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, indicating no psychological dominance.
Market indicators also reflect Newcastle’s weakened status, with limited support from betting indices. Taking all factors into account — squad strength, current form, injuries, and fixture congestion — Crystal Palace are well-positioned to at least secure a draw, with the possibility of a full away victory.
Recommendation
Asian Handicap: Crystal Palace +0.5 (Draw or Away Win)
