The 38th round of the English Championship brings an important clash at Fratton Park as Portsmouth host Derby County. With the season entering its decisive stage, Portsmouth are under pressure in the relegation battle and urgently need points. Derby County, meanwhile, sit comfortably in mid-table but will still be eager to maintain their positive record this season.
Portsmouth Season Overview
Portsmouth returned to the Championship in 2024 after promotion from League One. In their first season back, they performed reasonably well, collecting 54 points and finishing in a safe 16th place.
However, the current season has been significantly more difficult. Like many promoted teams, the second year has proven tougher as opponents have adapted and expectations increased.
In February, Portsmouth briefly showed signs of improvement by securing consecutive victories over Charlton and Millwall. But their momentum quickly faded. In recent rounds, they managed only a draw against Blackburn while suffering another defeat to Swansea in the latest match.
Overall, the team’s attack has struggled for consistency, averaging around one goal per match. Defensive issues have also been noticeable throughout the season.
Derby County Season Overview
Derby County also returned to the Championship last season after a long absence. Their first year back was extremely challenging, as they narrowly avoided relegation by just one point, finishing 19th and staying ahead of Luton.
This season has been more stable for the Pride Park club. Derby have maintained a positive win–loss ratio for much of the campaign and have spent most of the season in the upper half of the table.
That said, their form dipped slightly in February. Although they managed wins against Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday in recent rounds, they suffered a narrow 0–1 defeat against Millwall in their latest fixture.
Statistically, Derby County have been more productive going forward, averaging 1.46 goals per game while conceding around 1.30 per match.
Head-to-Head Record
Meetings between Portsmouth and Derby County have often been tightly contested. Six of the last seven encounters between the two clubs ended in draws, including both meetings in 2025.
Derby County managed just one victory in those matches, although it was a dominant 4–0 win at the end of 2024.
Given this history, another close and competitive match is expected.
Key Stats and Trends
Portsmouth have lost three of their last four matches.
53% of Portsmouth matches end with both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.31 goals per game.
Derby County have lost four of their last seven matches.
68% of Derby County games end with both teams scoring, with an average of 2.76 goals per match.
Both teams show a strong tendency toward open matches with goals on both sides.
Probable Starting Lineups
Portsmouth (4-5-1)
Schmid
Swanson – Ogilvie – Poole – Devlin
Adams – Pack – Swift – Ali – Caballero
Bishop
Unavailable due to injuries: Alese, Anderson, Knight, Bianchini, Kosnowski, Umeh and several others.
Derby County (4-5-1)
Vickers
Merkin – Forsyth – Clarke – Elder
Travis – Ozo – Clarke – Szmodics – Brereton
Agyemang
Unavailable: Butt, Johnston, Salvesen, Thompson.
Crown Full Odds Index (Reference)
Crown Asian Handicap
Portsmouth -0.25
Crown 1X2 Odds
Portsmouth – 2.20
Draw – 3.30
Derby County – 3.10
Crown Over/Under
2.0 Goals
The market slightly favors Portsmouth due to their home advantage, but the odds still suggest a very balanced matchup.
Match Prediction
Portsmouth are under greater pressure due to their position in the lower half of the table, which could force them to play more aggressively at home. Derby County, on the other hand, have shown better attacking efficiency throughout the season and remain capable of exploiting defensive gaps.
Given both teams’ scoring patterns and their recent matches, a game with multiple goals looks likely.
Prediction: Over 2.0 Goals
Projected Score: Portsmouth 1–2 Derby County or 2–1 Portsmouth
