During this season’s UEFA Europa League league phase, Lille finished 18th in the standings, securing a place in the knockout round play-offs. Across eight matches, the French side recorded four wins and four defeats, showing flashes of quality but lacking overall consistency. In their most recent outing, Lille drew 1–1 with Brest, extending their winless streak to three matches in all competitions.
From an attacking and defensive perspective, Lille’s recent numbers raise concerns. Over their last five matches, they have scored just three goals while conceding six, highlighting struggles at both ends of the pitch. At home, their recent form has fluctuated, alternating between wins, draws, and losses in their last three matches. Notably, one of those victories came in the Europa League, where they edged Freiburg 1–0, demonstrating their ability to grind out results on the European stage.
Red Star Belgrade concluded the Europa League league phase in 15th place, also earning a play-off berth. In their eight matches, they registered four wins, two draws, and two defeats, showing slightly more stability than their French counterparts.
Momentum is clearly on Red Star’s side. They cruised to a 3–0 victory over Železničar Pančevo in their latest match, extending their winning streak to four games in all competitions. Offensively, they have been particularly impressive, scoring 16 goals in their last five matches, averaging more than three goals per game. Their away form is equally noteworthy, with five consecutive away victories across competitions, underlining their confidence on the road. Star forward Marko Arnautović delivered a standout performance in the previous match, contributing both a goal and an assist.
Overall analysis suggests a fascinating contrast in form. Lille, representing Ligue 1, have struggled for momentum and remain winless since the beginning of February. However, they hold a crucial home advantage in this first-leg play-off clash, which kicks off at 9:00 PM local time. Playing in front of their own supporters, Lille must capitalize on this opportunity to seize early control of the tie.
Red Star arrive in excellent form with explosive attacking displays, yet the pre-match handicap market appears cautious toward the visitors despite their strong recent run. Given the lack of full market confidence in Red Star and Lille’s home advantage in a decisive European fixture, the edge leans toward the hosts to rise to the occasion.
Recommendation: Lille to win
Predicted Score: 2–1
