Kick-off Time: A Derby Feast in the Early Hours
The 12th round of Serie A features a blockbuster clash on Sunday, November 24, at 21:45 local time (CET) at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium. Inter Milan will host AC Milan in this historic city derby. Beyond local pride, this match has direct implications for the title race — Inter sits just 1 point behind the top, while AC Milan needs points to solidify their Champions League qualification. The suspense is at its peak.
Inter Milan Strong at Home, Milan Faces Injury Concerns
Inter Milan currently ranks 2nd with 24 points from 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their attack and defense are both top-tier: 28 goals scored and only 10 conceded in 12 games. At home, they remain unbeaten in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 goals and conceding only 3. The frontline duo Lautaro and Džeko has combined for 14 goals, midfielder Çalhanoğlu boasts an 88% pass success rate, and wing-back Dimarco has directly contributed to 4 goals from set pieces. Only midfielder Barella is doubtful, with limited impact expected.
AC Milan ranks 5th with 20 points from 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. The team has regained form with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, but injuries pose serious issues: defensive anchor Kjær is out, left-back Theo is doubtful, and midfielder Bennacer is suspended. The team relies heavily on the connection between Leão (5 goals, 3 assists) and Giroud (7 goals, 2 assists). Despite being unbeaten in 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 away games, Milan concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away match, showing a vulnerable defense.
Head-to-Head: Inter Holds Recent Advantage
In the last 10 encounters, Inter has the upper hand with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. At home, Inter has gone unbeaten in their last 4 encounters (3 wins, 1 draw). This season’s first leg ended 1-1, while last season Inter won 2-1 at home, and in 2023 they recorded a staggering 5-1 victory. Notably, Milan has scored only 2 goals in their last 3 away trips to Inter, highlighting their struggles in the derby.
Score Prediction: Narrow Win for Inter Expected
Inter’s home possession is expected to exceed 60%, with an attack conversion rate of 30%. Facing Milan’s weak central defense, covering only 54% of the middle area, Inter has a clear advantage. However, Milan’s Leão, capable of sprints at 33.6 km/h, remains a counterattack threat. Considering Inter’s home strength and Milan’s defensive vulnerabilities, Inter is favored to win 2-1, with 1-0 as the secondary prediction. Total goals are likely between 2-3, and Lautaro is expected to find the net.
Betting Odds & Analysis (Bet365 Style)
Market | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
Inter Milan Win | 1.85 | Strong home form, Milan’s injuries and defensive gaps favor Inter. |
Draw | 3.60 | Possible if Milan absorbs pressure and counters effectively. |
AC Milan Win | 4.00 | Difficult given away form and missing key defenders. |
Over 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | Expected goals from both sides, Inter attack vs Milan counter. |
Under 2.5 Goals | 1.70 | Slightly less likely, depends on Milan defensive resilience. |
Both Teams to Score | 1.75 | Lautaro vs Milan defense; Leão counter chance. |
Betting Confidence Index: 8/10
Inter’s home dominance and Milan’s injury concerns make the home side the safer bet. Slight caution is advised due to Leão’s counterattack threat.
