Bahia enter the current Brazilian Série A season in solid form. After 33 rounds, they sit sixth with 53 points and remain firmly in the race for a Copa Libertadores berth. Although their recent form has fluctuated — recording one win, one draw, and two losses in their last four league matches — their home performance has been nothing short of dominant. Bahia have won nine of their last ten home matches, including a current run of five straight home victories. During this impressive streak they have defeated top sides such as Flamengo and Palmeiras, underlining the strength of their home advantage. Offensively, the team remains consistent, scoring nine goals in their last six outings at an average of 1.5 per match, and being held scoreless only twice in that span.
Fortaleza, on the other hand, find themselves in a difficult position. With just 31 points after 33 matches, they remain inside the relegation zone and trail safety by five points, making their survival task increasingly urgent. While the team has shown slight improvement recently, going five straight matches unbeaten across competitions, four of those results were draws, highlighting their ongoing struggle to secure wins. Their away record has been especially problematic. In 16 away league matches this season, Fortaleza have managed only one win, along with seven draws and eight defeats, resulting in a win rate of just over six percent. Defensive issues persist as well, with eight goals conceded in their last six matches and only one clean sheet. Their situation becomes even more challenging given the absence of key players: midfielder Lucas Sasha is suspended, while first-choice goalkeeper João Ricardo and forward Marinho are sidelined with injuries, weakening both their defensive structure and attacking potential.
This matchup presents a clear contrast between a formidable home side and a struggling away team. Bahia hold a significant edge in squad stability, league standing, and especially home performance. Fortaleza may enter with strong motivation to fight for survival, but their poor away form and depleted squad greatly reduce their chances. Bahia also carry psychological momentum, having won their last three home meetings against Fortaleza. Taking into account Bahia’s reliable home attack, Fortaleza’s defensive vulnerabilities, and the visitors’ crucial absences, Bahia are well positioned to claim a comfortable victory. A two-goal margin or greater appears highly plausible.
Score Prediction: Bahia 2–0 Fortaleza
