World Cup Qualifiers – Can They Break Through? Luck of the Draw Matters as Much as Strength
In World Cup qualifying campaigns, overall strength is certainly the most important factor, but luck in the draw can also play a decisive role. This is especially true in the European qualifiers and the third round of the Asian qualifiers—where group placement can greatly affect a team’s chances of advancing. (This excludes the South American qualifiers, which are played in a double round-robin format.)
For example, in both the 2018 and 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Italy had poor luck with their group draws, which contributed to their failure to reach the finals. Similarly, China’s draw in the third round of the 2026 Asian qualifiers has been unfavorable—had they been placed in South Korea’s group instead, they might have stood a real chance of advancing.
The Netherlands, long known as the “Crownless Kings” of world football, also suffered from a tough draw in the 2018 qualifiers, when they were grouped with France and Sweden. They ultimately finished third and failed even to reach the playoffs. In contrast, their 2022 qualifying campaign was far smoother: grouped with Turkey, Norway, Montenegro, Latvia, and Gibraltar—none of whom are European heavyweights—the Dutch topped the group by two points and returned to the World Cup finals, as expected.
For the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the Netherlands have again enjoyed a favorable draw. They are placed in Group G alongside Poland, Finland, Lithuania, and Malta. Lithuania and Malta are clear minnows, while Poland and Finland, though competitive, remain a level below the Dutch—even if the Netherlands are not currently at their absolute peak.
Malta vs Netherlands
Match Type: 2026 World Cup European Qualifiers, Group G – Round 7
Kick-off Time: October 10, 02:45
As things stand, the Group G table is as follows:
Netherlands: 4 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 10 points (top, with a game in hand)
Poland: 5 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 10 points
Finland: 5 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 7 points
Lithuania: 5 matches, 3 draws, 2 losses, 3 points
Malta: 5 matches, 2 draws, 3 losses, 2 points (bottom)
Malta, currently ranked 166th in the world, has a total squad value of around €11.6 million. Despite limited strength, they have shown some resilience lately. In their most recent friendly match, Malta beat San Marino 3–1 at home, regaining some confidence. Notably, Malta are unbeaten in their last two home games, demonstrating a decent level of home-field competitiveness.
However, their performance in this qualifying campaign has been poor—just one goal scored and 12 conceded in five games, ranking them last in both attack and defense within the group. Forward Teddy Teuma (valued at €3.5 million) is the team’s most valuable player and will bear the main responsibility for leading their offensive efforts.
By contrast, the Netherlands are ranked 7th in the world, with a staggering squad value of €823 million—nearly 70 times that of Malta. The team has displayed formidable attacking power in these qualifiers, scoring 14 goals in 4 matches, averaging more than 3 goals per game.
The Dutch have been in solid form lately. In their last match, they defeated Lithuania 3–2, getting back to winning ways. Even more impressively, they have won both of their most recent away games, showcasing excellent form on the road.
Despite playing away this time, the Oranje are expected to claim a comfortable victory—anything less than a dominant win would be a major surprise.
